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An ex-colonel from the special forces, minister of state Al Carns was this week on manouevres warning that the UK must ready itself for war with Russia.

“The threat of conflict is at Europe’s door again. That’s the reality. We’ve got to be prepared to prevent it,” he said, in comments that exceed previous admonitions by his superior, the defence secretary.

“As a whole society – what is their role if we get caught in an fight for survival, and what do they need to be aware they need to do and what they can’t do, and how do we rally the nation to support a military endeavour?”

It was stark language from the middle-aged Scottish-born MP, who has had an exceptionally swift rise to his role of armed forces minister.

A Swift Political Ascent

Naturally for a politician with a history of service in the armed forces, there is conjecture about whether he is a potential future leader – as with, at various points, other military figures before him.

This time, however, some ruling party MPs think there could be a real prospect of Carns being a contender if and when the opportunity presents itself.

One of the reasons for that is that Carns has been involved in politics for longer than it seems, as a former defence advisor to multiple previous defence secretaries.

But there is also the risk of being over-promoted as a politician with a backstory colleagues think will appeal to the public – without enough consideration of whether they have the experience and shrewdness to make it to the top.

From the Battlefield to Westminster

Carns was born in Aberdeen, and state educated, before joining the Royal Marines in 1999 at the age of 19. He rose through the ranks and was awarded the Military Cross in 2011 “for gallant and distinguished services in Afghanistan”.

It came as a surprise when he resigned from the armed forces after 24 years of service to stand as an MP in Birmingham Selly Oak, just prior to he was due to be promoted to brigadier.

And in a sign he was immediately identified as a talent, the prime minister appointed him as a minister for veterans affairs straight after the most recent general election. He was elevated later that year to the more prominent position with a portfolio covering all the military.

Public Profile and Partisan Combat

Chiselled and confident, Carns has been an periodic spokesperson for the government, and has been an sharp partisan operator when criticising rival parties over issues of national security.

He has also found time to break a world record this year along with former military colleagues by climbing Mount Everest in under five days without acclimatising on the mountain, using xenon gas.

Leadership Speculation and Internal Caution

His name entered the conversation as a possible future leader in earnest around the time of a leadership election last autumn, when his backers began sounding out MPs about a run for the job. That failed to get off the ground, with the prime minister's office strongly supporting another candidate.

Since then, profiles of Carns have begun to appear in the media, with one newspaper presenting him as the “Action Man” that some were trying to prevent from ousting the prime minister.

While some MPs think he could be leadership material, others think he is making himself appear too ambitious when there is no vacancy at the top. There is also a wariness about the rapid rise of a star performer from outside politics.

“It's not proven that being senior in the military equates to being any good at politics any more than being a top prosecutor,” says one MP. “He is completely untested.”