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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare

The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are released from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".

Nocturnal Warfare

As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.

Continuous Dangers

Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.

Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.

Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a assumption familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.

Existing Situation

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.

These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.

While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.