From Superpower to Rogue State: The Implications of the US Seizure of Venezuela's Maduro
Against the backdrop of the immense confusion following the United States attacks on Venezuela, the apprehension of leader Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “run” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, there is no doubt – they set a truly chilling precedent.
Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed
The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in Latin America, but this past Saturday morning witnessed its initial significant armed assault on South American land. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” Mr Trump declared.
The choice to militarily strike another state and capture its head of state – just a short time after he stated a desire for negotiations – has still wider repercussions. This ought to concern everyone.
Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela
Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has remarked that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and dismissed prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.
However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other factions of the leadership-stricken government are even more hardline.
A Shift in Global Role
A man who was elected pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is converting it into a rogue state.
He holds the view that the America's power allows it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: consider the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He asserts that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this latest episode “will pay for itself”.
A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy
George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came without UN resolutions of any kind or authorization from lawmakers; Democrats were not even informed and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to destroy them.
Set aside the implication this carries to global powers like Russia and China, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will likely encourage additional military gambits.
The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims
It is widely rejected the justification that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is driven by the promise of energy wealth as well as machismo, the ideology of some in his administration, and the desire for glory as his standing with the American public falters.
World Leaders' Silence and a Weakened UN
The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode highlights the UN's diminishing clout.
Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could potentially force him to turn attention back home – but soaring healthcare premiums, economic unhappiness and distracting files increase his appetite for distraction.
We are not yet 12 months into his four-year term. Other governments may regret it if they fail to speak up today, considering the potential next target.