Are You Not Being Entertained? The Fall of Open-Play Goal Scoring
A key narrative of the Premier League season so far concerns the decline of scoring in open-play scenarios and the way clubs are finding goals more from set-pieces as an alternative.
Looking at how goals have been scored to matchday 11 last season, we see a drop of 39 goals in open-play and 26 more from team set-pieces and penalties, giving us 13 less in total.
Examining the broader view, efforts on goal sides are producing reveal an incredible 370 fewer in open-play than at this stage previously.
Even with the big increase in set-play finishes, records show just two more attempts generated from these situations outside of spot-kicks, showing the proficiency teams have been at finding ways to convert from dead-ball chances.
Goal Averages Reveal a Story
301 total goals recorded in the first 110 fixtures to date averages out at nearly 2.75 goals each match, which if it continued for the whole season might be the smallest for half a decade, from five seasons ago (2.69 per game).
However, only 196 scores scored in open play equates to 1.78 per fixture and is tracking to be the least for 16 years, since 2009-10 (1.76 per game).
2009-10 also marks the unique EPL campaign to experience scoring at a higher rate from dead-balls without spot-kicks than this season's rate of 0.77 per game (0.79 average).
Which Teams Account for This Change?
In terms of scoring from open play, Wolverhampton Wanderers have experienced by far the biggest decline, netting just four in their first 11 fixtures, a reduction of 10 than this point last season.
Excluding Wolverhampton, the Premier League's drop in open play goals is predominantly a London thing, with half of the capital's seven sides scoring at least five fewer goals from open play than the prior season.
Honestly, that's largely down to them scoring numerous goals at the beginning of last season instead of them having difficulty to score in open-play the current term.
At the same time City have recorded the largest rise, with almost every one of their 23 scores so far coming in open play.
Set-Play Proficiency
Comparing newly promoted sides with those that were relegated they took the place of. Play-off champions Sunderland have netted three more scores in open play than Southampton managed in matchday 11 en route to demotion last season.
When it comes to scoring from set-plays (excluding spot-kicks), the Gunners and the Blues have recorded the largest rise, with the two clubs making up for the five fewer scores that they've scored in open play with identical figures from dead-ball chances.
Manchester United have scored twice as many goals from set-plays as they achieved in the first 11 matches the previous campaign prior to Ruben Amorim assumed control, while Sunderland once more have been more effective at converting than the fellow red-and-whites they superseded.
Man City seem unaware of the message about scoring more from set-pieces, because they've netted a reduction of three than last season, like Forest, even if this could be because of the tactical shift they've attempted to adopt.
General Tendencies
Six sides – the Gunners, the Blues, the Cottagers, the Magpies, Tottenham and West Ham – represent the current campaign's primary examples by scoring fewer goals from open play and more from set-pieces, while City are the unique club to buck the trend so far by achieving the complete reverse.
It will be interesting to watch if clubs carry on to rely so heavily on set-pieces as matches continue or if they regain their overall inventiveness and start netting more goals in open-play too.
