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A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.

Debates range over identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."

Request for More Extensive Debate

Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."